Today is Budget Day 2024 (30th October), and with it comes the news that the A1 Dualling has been scrapped as ‘unaffordable’, which analysis by Transport Action Network identified some time ago, giving the scheme an adjusted Benefit to Cost Ratio (BCR) of just 0.8, meaning for every £1 invested, a return of just 80p could be expected, a ‘poor value for money’ scheme, and given a likely price tag of around £400m accounting for inflation, that is around and £80m loss to the economy.
That doesn’t mean that the Northumberland Coast between Newcastle and Berwick should still not recieve investment into it’s transport network, but that it should be the rail network instead of roads.
This is best exemplified by the Invest East Coast consortium of councils, whose report that researched the benefits of ECML investments gives a typical BCR figure of 2.73, meaning for every £1 in, £2.73 comes back in economic benefits, a win-win of economic benefit from greener, cleaner transport.
The East Coast Main Line (ECML) in Northumberland has long been identified as needing upgrades, both in line capacity (nunber of trains it can handle per hour) as well as electrical infrastructure (not enough electrical supply to the overhead wires to support more long & heavier electric trains, meaning some trains running on diesel under the wires). Upgrading this route would have immediate major benefits for existing trains (i.e. some units/railfreight running on diesel could switch to all electric operation).
A further scheme would be to upgrade the Hepscott Line, which is the link line that the Northumberland Coast Loop would utilise for the proposed Newcastle – Blyth – Berwick route.
While a public costing for this work is not available, an estimate can be deduced from the nearby Northumberland Line scheme. At eighteen miles in length, with major track, signalling, and level crossing upgrades, new bridges, and six new stations, it has cost around £298.5m, around £130m more than forecast, but is still expected to achieve a BCR of 1.5, meaning for every £1 spent, a return of £1.50 is anticipated.
With the Northumberland Line nearing completion (December 2024 for partial reopening), and the ECML a regularly used passenger route; the likely ‘worst case scenario’ costs of upgrading the approximately four miles of the Hepscott Line from Morpeth North Junction to Bedlington Junction would be fairly modest, probably in the ballpark of £80m-£100m (estimate of £20-25m per mile to relay track and double track additional sections/relay track, upgrade of signalling and level crossings or replacement (potentially needed at A1068 Choppington?).
New stations wouldn’t be required for the scheme, as it would use existing stations on the Northumberland Line and ECML, but the route would give more impetus to a new station at Choppington, as well as those proposed in North Northumberland such as Belford.
In addition, the cost of these upgrades would be largely shared with other planned services for the Hepscott Line, such as extension of the current Newcastle to Morpeth service on to Bedlington, meaning only the Morpeth North Curve between Hepscott Junction and Morpeth North Junction is uniquely used by this proposal.
However, this option could also be seen as Jeff Bezos’ ‘two way door’, as it is an existing, presently freight only route, but having seen fairly recent railtours (2017), and being a recognised diversionary route, there might be an option to trial services without needing to commit to upgrades immediately?
Assuming a fairly modest BCR value of 1.5, that would effectively give a net economic gain of £50m, very favourable compared to the £80m loss associated with dualling the A1?
With favourable feedback from local politicians, and broad support of the Northumberland Coast Loop petition (742 signatures), perhaps the Northumberland Coast Loop and wider East Coast Main Line might see major investment instead of the A1?
The Northumberland Coast Loop 