In a recent Northumberland Gazette article, David Smith MP for North Northumberland pressed for dualling the A1 yet again, but there is a clear argument that this is a poor investment for the future on a number of fronts; why not instead put the investment into the proven alternative of the ECML, and possibly also into the Northumberland Coast Loop, the latter being a northern connection between the Northumberland Line and the ECML headed north through Pegswood.
Can’t ignore A1 emissions.
As Space4Gosforth has also fairly recently commented in the Northumberland Gazette (April 2024), dualling would be ‘environmentally ruinous’ with 1.44m tonnes of CO2 attached to the scheme. These emissions contribute to ongoing worsening of climate change, the effect of which can be clearly seen in recent events such as a month’s worth of rainfall in Blyth just a few days ago, alongside the Hurricanes Helene and Milton that have hammered the USA with almost unprecedented effects.
So from a climate change mitigation and Net Zero standpoint, dualling of the A1 makes zero sense to carry out, as it simply worsens the issues of climate change.
To cut emissions, making better use of the parallel, fully electrified ECML surely makes the most sense? Moving people and goods by electric trains rather than petrol and diesel cars (which still make up the majority of road vehicles).
This will require an uprating of the electrical supply to the ECML, to allow longer, and heavier trains, as well as swapping some diesel trains for electric ones, especially to provide an improved local service, but many trains, such as Class 156/158’s are near end of life anyway and due replacement.
Better solutions to road safety for the A1 and other routes.
The article above by Space4Gosforth also sets out clearly that simpler, more effective, cheaper and more rapidly deployable safety measures could be applied to the A1 to make it safer, reducing speed limits on particularly accident-prone stretches, coupled with average speed cameras have proven highly effective on many other routes to reduce accidents, injuries and fatalities. Read more here from Space4Gosforth.
There is also the benefits of modal shift, as travel by active travel and public transport is far safer than travelling within a car, either by bus or by rail. Reducing road traffic via modal shift to more sustainable modes will improve ALL roads, so the investment into routes such as the ECML will have benefits far beyond just the railway itself.
Again, rail investment as part of improving public transport makes far more sense as a road safety measure than dualling the A1, as the road scheme is only likely to increase traffic both on the A1 itself, as well as other routes, leading to more accidents and more fatalities.
Flawed economic case for dualling the A1 and rail is a better economic investment.
In the article from David Smith MP, he quotes a highly outdated figure of £290m for dualling; thiswas the price in 2014, a decade of inflation now puts the price at £390m or more.
Moreover, the ‘big picture’ costs linked to dualling, such as effects of increased emissions, could amount to as much as -£1.2bn of economic damage.
Groups such as Transport Action Network have identified that the A1 Dualling between Morpeth and Ellingham is now rated as ‘poor’ value for money, with a quoted Benefit to Cost Ratio of just 0.8, meaning for every £1 invested, just 80p would be returned in economic gain, based on the most optimistic outlook and discounting the potential for huge losses when wider costs resulting from emissions are taken into account.
By comparison, even though the Northumberland Line scheme has suffered a serious cost overrun of around £100m, it’s BCR figure is expected at 1.6, meaning that for every £1 spent, there is a gain of £1.60 to the economy.
Furthermore, groups such as the East Coast Mainline Authorities who spearhead the ‘Invest East Coast’ campaign state that for every £1 spent on the ECML, a return of upto £2.73 can be expected.
Linking the ECML and Northumberland Line together via the Northumberland Coast Loop route could drive up the economic gains of both lines, and help drive the wider economy of the North East, of which North Northumberland is an important part.
Political mandate is also lacking?
There is also the question to which David Smith has the political backing to dual the A1 too; when campaigning before the General Election back in July this year, his commitment to dualling the A1 was conspicuous by its absence in many respects, while it was placed front and centre by the incumbent Berwick Upon Tweed Conservative MP Anne-Marie Trevelyan, who lost in that election.
While the two petitions were also far apart in time, Anne-Marie Trevelyan also launched a petition to dual the A1 back in 2012 that only recieved 624 signatures in its duration, while the recently ended (Oct 2024) Northumberland Coast Loop petition ended with 742 signatures, suggesting that improving rail connectivity enjoys a much greater level of support than dualling the A1.
Indeed in his maiden speech, he made more than one reference to railways, while not a single mention was made about the A1.
Summary
In conclusion, I’m calling for David Smith MP to change his stance from pushing for the dualling of the A1 to instead campaigning for the improvement of the ECML; which has a much more assured climate compatability by not generating emissions on the scale of dualling the A1, is far safer as a mode of transport and can help drive wider modal shift, as well as the obvious economic advantages.
The Northumberland Coast Loop 